A BIG LOSS!!! Overlooked potential resistance!

 

There are two catches for this trade:

1. There are 2 bottoms tested on the 2nd day after trade entered.

    - A horizontal resistance formed by bottoms of October and November.

    - A declining slope formed by bottoms of mid-Nov and mid-Dec.

2. Short Position should be much conservative as SPY is upward bias. So, the downside target is almost 200 points which is hard to reach.

Happy New Year!! First entry in 2025!

1. Possible Head and Shoulder Top.

2. Profit target >200 points is huge range and may not be possible to meet.

3. There is a nearest downside resistance around 5800 which is extended from the double dips at the starts of 3rd Oct & 4th Nov.

4. The breakout bar with higher volume than the usual.

Find a better entry price!

 One thing, too late to enter the trade, the entry target is 6127.25, but it slips to 6118.75 as entry price after next opening session at the same day @ 1100 pm. While EZ pulls back over 6148 next day, so that means a better entry price existed in the next day everytime after trade entrys. The executed target price hurts the profit at the end.

            

It's a ridiculously huge MISTAKE!!!! (Overlapping trades)

 After a small loss and small profit, I faced a new chance for a downside trade. It worked into my favour and went quite well with my theory, but I've made a big mistake!!! I put in the SAME profit taking price as my buy-in market price!! This is absolutely unforgiving and what a casual mistake!!! Damn it!

Fig. 1: same prices of profit taking and current market price.

Another thing which is worth noting for this downside trade that the triggering point to open the trade is before the closing position of last trade. That means the current trade is overlapping with the previous trade. I was still hesitating for opening the current trade. But after I thought thoroughly, every trade is likely and contains certain likelihood to be profitable according to my thesis, I still insisted to open this trade. Finally, the outcome is good.

Fig. 2: overlapping trades.

Fig. 3: Final result.

Very good materials about Trading and Risk