More evidence on China's hard landing

蕭若元 之前仲大大聲話大陸經濟唔會有recession, 宜家又話hard landing is imminent.....我都話無咁簡單ga la~~ 自己睇啦，無野好講~~~
link: even-more-evidence-china-hard-landing

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner

The latest container shipments into the port of Los Angeles and Long Beach confirm that China (and Asia) is no longer nearly as much in the game. Inbound is down 10% from last year and 20% from the same month in 2007.  I do think a little marginal production has shifted to the US, but it isn’t really showing up in the data, as rail car traffic in the US is now down 1% YoY. Fed Ex says it will “reduce flight hours, and “park some planes” according to headlines on Bloomberg. It also sees weakness in tech, mobile phones, finance, insurance, and real estate, and it also anticipates below-trend growth.

Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Fourth Consecutive Gain

Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Fourth Consecutive Gain

Global Unemployment Condition

Australia Unemployment May Hit 9-Year High
U.K. Jobless Rate Rises to 16-year high of 8.4%
Spanish Unemployment Reaching Highest in 15 years Pressures Rajoy: Economy

Historical BDI - a economy leading indicator

http://www.kathylien.com/site/us-dollar/chiming-in-on-the-baltic-dry-index
This link shows a broader view of BDI along the last decade.
The surge of BDI after 2003 may be probably due to the emerging economy of China that it have not reached such a high level in the beginning of 90's. See the chart below:

BDI's headwind

There is a serious moment about the severity of current BDI index downturn. It nearly reaches the historical low-666 points. See the chart below:

2001 Noble Prize Economists - Joseph E. Stiglitz

The Book of Jobs
Forget monetary policy. Re-examining the cause of the Great Depression—the revolution in agriculture that threw millions out of work—the author argues that the U.S. is now facing and must manage a similar shift in the “real” economy, from industry to service, or risk a tragic replay of 80 years ago.
By Joseph E. Stiglitz Illustration by Stephen Doyle

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2012/01/stiglitz-depression-201201

Higher Odds for Recession

Pros:
Industrial Production Confirming Changes To LEI
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Lance-Roberts-120118-Industrial-Production-Confirming-Changes-To-LEI.php
Real Final Sales Set to Decelerate?
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Bruce-Carman-Real-Final-Sales120116.php

Cons:
Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey: Moderate Expansion
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Philly-Fed-Business-Outlook.php
Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The Post-Holiday Mood Beats Expectations
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Michigan-Consumer-Sentiment-Index.php

More articles about Recession

Support:

Leading Indicators and the Risk of a Blindside Recession - John Hussman

Real Final Sales Set to Decelerate? - Bruce Carman

Against:

Best Recession Forecaster: Robert F. DIELI - A Dash of insight, Jeff. Miller

US Recession - An opposing View - Dwaine Van Vuuren

Neutral:

Arguing for the coming recession - Steven Hansen

P.S. Other than WLI, please also review the ECRI US Leading Diffusion index which might only be reviewed with its paid service. While Morgan Stanley's seasonal report shown the chart.

On the markets - Risk Off, Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, page 3, chart of USLDI

ECRI related

Valuable posts about ECRI showing and its hacking

ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Virtually Unchanged For 7 Weeks -By Doug Short

A peek inside ECRI's black box - By New Deal Democrat

Accordint to Mr. Siu's commented on US economy outlook can be concluded into THREE indicator below:
a.) US non-farm payrolls change
b.) US housing index
c.) Credit spread (2yr/10yr) / yield-spread / expansion.