買入沽出有何干？ 10-23-2007
現在，股市大跌之後，是否入市的好時機？恆指1000點的跌幅即代表整個市場下滑3.7%，聽起來好像是很大的百分比，但事實上不是那麼多。
當然，不同公司的標準各異，市場上有很多投資機構，尤其是那些買賣窩輪的，少於2%的跌幅都會造成重大的逆轉。事實上，如果你已買入窩輪，昨日的跌幅本應可令你一敗塗地，但即使在這個市場，也沒有發生這樣的慘劇，雖然在窩輪市場中20%的跌幅一點也非不尋常。
有些機構靠買賣很窄的差額，甚至可以獲利，但不是所有買賣股票的人都是一帆風順的，只有吹順風時才能得心應手。但我一直都奉勸大家，踩鋼線太危險不好走，稍一不慎就會一無所有，我希望讀者都緊記這道理，我不會向大家預言市場究竟是升還是跌。
如果市場上升，我很高興可以沽出更多升得過高的股份，我一直都有慢慢沽出，如果市場下跌，我就準備好回看一些我從前曾擁有的股份，並指出它們在那階段仍然太高了。
我記得，我在六月曾說過工商銀行(1398)股價4元實在太高，雖然我沒有進而批評它的股價過高，但我的意思是不願意以4元以上的價錢買入，這是件頗為不 同的事。我不喜歡靠少少的差額獲利，在大部份的情況下，我也不願意買入股份，除非我見到買入的利潤可達至少100%。這不代表我預期在下星期就賺得 100%的利潤，而是，對於一些非藍籌股，就像很多次一級的中資股份般，我可以看到這些公司的股價有潛力在兩年之內倍增，如果是一些實力雄厚的股份，如中 電(2)般優質的公司， 股價則在五年之內將會倍增。
當然，這個評估非常主觀，我不會相信其他人的意見。此外，工商銀行仍未公佈其業績，這為其價格結構帶來新的觀點，因為從前在招股書上刊載的報告，不可倚賴 作估計將來的溢利趨勢。我想我最新的評估一定引來大眾的討論，但我的論點似乎不是最受歡迎的，至少在中資H股股份之間如是。
然而，市場上有很多炒家，他們正是股票經紀賴以為生的米飯班主，從買賣中賺到10%或20%的利潤已十分心滿意足，成功之後又再轉換買入其他股份。這只是 等於送錢給股票經紀，因為市場總是一窩蜂的上上落落，如果一隻股份上升其他都會跟隨著大勢上升。這一點由不同的股票圖表都可以看出來，但當然亦有例外，有 些是贏家，有些則落後於大市。
事實上，這似乎是大多炒家採用的政策，有些人會問我，買入之後期待著的目標是什麼。我當然沒有目標，因為我預期我推薦的股份價格將一直上升，因為你保留得愈久，它將會升得愈高。天空有多高？我相信即使你飛上雲層，頭頂都仍然是天空。優質股也是一樣，總是有空間繼續攀升。
當投資者問我，我推薦的股份是否需要定下止蝕位時，我也感到不耐煩，這樣就等於問我市場的最低處在哪裏，我一般的做法是在跌市之中買入，如果再進一步下跌，那真是謝天謝地了，我可以沿著跌勢把成本價格水平減得更低。我不會推介沒有良好價值的股份。
這是為何今次的下跌，特別是國企股，未能足以令我建議買入。我確信股價快將揚升，而我肯定那些滿足於10%至20%邊際利潤的交易者可以賺到錢，但我恐怕 當股價下跌時，今日入市的買家或要承受未知何等嚴重的損失，因為當市況逆轉時，跌市的嚴重程度對於很多投資者來說，特別是缺乏經驗的新手，都是難以承受。
我不知道股市何時見頂，但假如我身處其中的話，我必定作好準備，而我知道自己的持股將可收復任何失地，繼而升至新高。此外，我亦不知道股市何時見底，但經過一輪沽售後，我會樂意再次入市，而大市跌得越低，我會更願意買入。
2007年10月1日星期一
定下撤退策略
恆指到了27,000既 P/E 已經係 22X, 一D都唔平! 雖然陸東話會到 28,000, 最樂觀可以夾住北水到35,000 咁話, 但佢此終係人, 唔係神! 更可況錢係自己既, 蝕左佢咁唔會同情我, 所以見好要收啦~
歷史話俾我知恆指響20x P/E 樓上無可能唔爆, 最叻都只係 26.18x (2000年2月), 但係無人知幾時爆?! 所以Timing 唔係最重要, 策略同貫徹執行至係要義!!
雖然我係Value Investment 既信徒, 但若見股價嚴重偏離估值的話, Mr Market 叫我用透支幾年盈利黎同我接貨, 我更係"Ler"飯應啦~
策略如下:
1. 放紙鳶: 941 已到價, 若股價不斷上升, 不斷推高止賺位直至Hit中為止. 止賺位係52周高位回落後15%
902 未到價 ($12~$15), 若股價過了合理價仲不斷升, 不斷推高止賺位直至Hit中為止.
2. 分段沽: 902 未到價, 若到價就放1/4, 每升5毫就再放1/4, 如此類推, 直至沽完.
941 因只得一手, 不能用此方法!
3. 不沽! 長渣到尾! (此乃價值投資的最高心法, 小弟自問尚未練成~)
大慨會用方法1. 或2., 若大市回落, 股價反回合理值以下,我會續持有.. 如有50% Margin of Safety 我又會買貨喇~
歷史話俾我知恆指響20x P/E 樓上無可能唔爆, 最叻都只係 26.18x (2000年2月), 但係無人知幾時爆?! 所以Timing 唔係最重要, 策略同貫徹執行至係要義!!
雖然我係Value Investment 既信徒, 但若見股價嚴重偏離估值的話, Mr Market 叫我用透支幾年盈利黎同我接貨, 我更係"Ler"飯應啦~
策略如下:
1. 放紙鳶: 941 已到價, 若股價不斷上升, 不斷推高止賺位直至Hit中為止. 止賺位係52周高位回落後15%
902 未到價 ($12~$15), 若股價過了合理價仲不斷升, 不斷推高止賺位直至Hit中為止.
2. 分段沽: 902 未到價, 若到價就放1/4, 每升5毫就再放1/4, 如此類推, 直至沽完.
941 因只得一手, 不能用此方法!
3. 不沽! 長渣到尾! (此乃價值投資的最高心法, 小弟自問尚未練成~)
大慨會用方法1. 或2., 若大市回落, 股價反回合理值以下,我會續持有.. 如有50% Margin of Safety 我又會買貨喇~
2007年9月29日星期六
Noise!!
These days are tough days. Even though HSI reached a new high level - 27,000, the noise in my mind became louder and louder everyday.
There is a question surrounding me:
1.) I bought 941 and 902 around $41 and $5 respectively, they were reaching their new high these days. Should I sell some/all of them to retain the profit? If the stocks keep rising, then I would regret to do the original decision. Meanwhile, should I use the 10~15% cut-loss border from the 52 weeks new high point to take profit? This method seems more or less go along with the whole rising edge of the stocks in such a crazy cow market.
Answer: What is your original thinking/concept in buying these TWO stocks?
941 and 902 are both the growth stocks. And my buying price is quite low, they all have 50% or more margin to their intrinsic values, e.g. 941~$117, 902~$8.5. In the value investment point of view, there are no way to sell all of them until both of their growth rate were decreasing OR their industries are over competed such that it's very difficult to make profit any more.
In the speculation point of view, if we push up the cut-gain point from the 52 weeks new high of particular stock, in some cases, it can be possibly eating up the rising edge. However, you will be defeated out in some fluctuating days, e.g. 17th August. I think most of the guys would sell more or less their holdings at this day.
So, should we enlarge our cut-gain margin from 15% to 20%, or even more to acquire a longer life during the rising days? I don't know. But if you think your buying action is a speculative one, you should bare in mind that is speculation and take the cut-loss and cut-gain lines in discipline no matter the lines set at 10%,15% or 20% from your buying price and the 52 weeks new-high point.
You can't earn everything in the world, don't be greedy!!
There is a question surrounding me:
1.) I bought 941 and 902 around $41 and $5 respectively, they were reaching their new high these days. Should I sell some/all of them to retain the profit? If the stocks keep rising, then I would regret to do the original decision. Meanwhile, should I use the 10~15% cut-loss border from the 52 weeks new high point to take profit? This method seems more or less go along with the whole rising edge of the stocks in such a crazy cow market.
Answer: What is your original thinking/concept in buying these TWO stocks?
941 and 902 are both the growth stocks. And my buying price is quite low, they all have 50% or more margin to their intrinsic values, e.g. 941~$117, 902~$8.5. In the value investment point of view, there are no way to sell all of them until both of their growth rate were decreasing OR their industries are over competed such that it's very difficult to make profit any more.
In the speculation point of view, if we push up the cut-gain point from the 52 weeks new high of particular stock, in some cases, it can be possibly eating up the rising edge. However, you will be defeated out in some fluctuating days, e.g. 17th August. I think most of the guys would sell more or less their holdings at this day.
So, should we enlarge our cut-gain margin from 15% to 20%, or even more to acquire a longer life during the rising days? I don't know. But if you think your buying action is a speculative one, you should bare in mind that is speculation and take the cut-loss and cut-gain lines in discipline no matter the lines set at 10%,15% or 20% from your buying price and the 52 weeks new-high point.
You can't earn everything in the world, don't be greedy!!
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